president, donald, trump

Can Trump prevent a US recession in election year?   3%

Donald Trump is pressuring the Fed to stave off a sharp economic downturn as he seeks reelection in 2020. The feelgood effects of his $1.5 billion program of tax cuts are due to run out soon, so what can he do?

Fed's commitment to act upstaged by Trump's furor   20%

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would "act as appropriate" to keep the U.S. economy healthy in a deteriorating global economy, but stopped short of committing to rapid-fire rate cuts and drew fire from President Donald Trump.

With Trumps Help, Israel Chooses Short-Term Land Grabs Over Long-Term Legitimacy  

As Israel prepares for another round of elections, the Trump administration seems poised to give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an invaluable campaign contribution by providing a green light for Israel to declare sovereignty in Area C of the West Bank.

The post With Trump’s Help, Israel Chooses Short-Term Land Grabs Over Long-Term Legitimacy appeared first on MintPress News.

'The Anti-Squad': Rep. Elissa Slotkin's Gang offers moderate Democratic path   15%

Slotkin says she sees bipartisanship as key to any success in Michigan, which flipped to Trump in 2016 by a tiny margin

EU hopes to ease trade tension with US at G7 summit, official says   15%

The European Union hopes to ease trade tensions with US President Donald Trump when the leaders of the world’s seven major advanced economies meet in France over the weekend, a senior EU

China-based firms look to obscure tariff loophole to dodge trade war, but US customs is cracking down   6%

Companies manufacturing in China are using a little-known trade rule to dodge tariffs on their exports to the United States and reduce the cost of US President Donald Trump’s trade war.Section 321 of the Tariff Act of 1930 – also known as the de minimis rule – is a legal loophole that allows single shipments not exceeding US$800 in value per individual or company within a 24-hour period to enter the US tariff free.“The de minimis is the green lane of trade,” said Charles Brewer, CEO of DHL e…

Sorry, Mr Trump Greenlands no go. But can I interest you in our little island? | Jack Bernhardt   -3%

It’s called the United Kingdom. It’s in a bit of a state, but it’s a great opportunity for the right buyer

People say that news these days is unexpected and baffling, but really could there be a more predictably 2019 story than “Donald Trump wants to buy Greenland”? It has all the boring trappings of a typical Trump story – gobsmacking ignorance, casual racism, colonialist attitudes towards the treatment of indigenous people, a cold-hearted, transactional view of human life, and ending with him calling a woman in power “nasty”. If the news were a binge-worthy drama, this would be a mid-series episode that The AV Club would rate C-: “a worryingly formulaic outing that makes you fear the writers have run out of ideas.”

The whole idea was a nonstarter anyway – Greenland is a proud, independent region. What kind of self-respecting island nation would willingly accept being purchased by the United States? If Trump wants to buy somewhere, he needs to find somewhere that’s been entirely stripped of pride, dignity and joy to the extent that it is now completely incapable of self-governance. A country so humiliated and degraded that it would happily grovel at the feet of an expansionist empire if it just promised the slightest iota of stability.

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Majority of economists see 2021 recession   31%

A strong majority, 74 percent, of U.S. business economists appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of President Donald Trump’s economic policies that they expect a recession in the U.S. by the end of 2021.

The next global recession will be immune to monetary solutions | Nouriel Roubini   -10%

Unlike in 2008, we now face the consequences of three potential negative supply shocks

There are three negative supply shocks that could trigger a global recession by 2020. All of them reflect political factors affecting international relations, two involve China, and the United States is at the centre of each. Moreover, none of them is amenable to the traditional tools of countercyclical macroeconomic policy.

The first potential shock stems from the Sino-American trade and currency war, which escalated this month when Donald Trump’s administration threatened additional tariffs on Chinese exports, and formally labelled China a currency manipulator.

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The lesson for Australia from Donald Trump's Greenland obsession   -15%

At least Scott Morrison knows how to react should Donald Trump float the idea of buying Tasmania when the Prime Minister visits Washington next month.

Trump campaign seeks to mobilize women in 2020 battleground states   13%

President Donald Trump's re-election campaign hosted events in 2020 battleground states on Thursday to mobilize and train suburban women, an important voting bloc that defected from Republicans during last year's congressional contests.

Sarah Huckabee Sanders to Join Fox News as a Contributor   14%

The former White House press secretary’s move reinforced the strong ties between the conservative network and the Trump administration.

AP News in Brief at 11:04 p.m. EDT   -25%

Trump raises tariffs on Chinese goods as trade war escalates WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump angrily escalated his trade fight with China on Friday, raising retaliatory tariffs and ordering … Click to Continue »

Trump is ramping up his economic double-talk to tamp down recession fears   -15%

As a presidential candidate, Donald Trump warned about the perils of President Barack Obama’s economic management. Now as president, Trump often fails to heed his own advice.

Banks refuse to tell court if they have Donald Trumps tax returns as US president fights to shield financial records from Democrats   3%

House Democrats want “every debit card swipe” in an overly broad pursuit of Donald Trump’s financial records meant to harass the US president rather than fulfil their oversight duties, a lawyer for Trump told a federal appeals panel.Trump’s lawyers were in court on Friday trying to block Democrats’ access to records from Deutsche Bank and Capital One – a battle in which House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has much at stake, amid mounting pressure for impeachment proceedings, as she tries to persuade her…

The big recession problem  

Trump says voters have no choice — Let's buy Greenland!

'Prior commitments': Iceland's leader won't be around to welcome Mike Pence  

PM Katrin Jakobsdottir underscored that the arrangement was "absolutely not" about snubbing the Trump administration.

Newsletter: Today: Trump's familiar gun control retreat  

President Trump appeared open to gun sales restrictions following three mass shootings.

The Trump Administrations Sustained Attack on the Rights of Immigrant Children  

Jonathan Blitzer writes about the Trump Administration’s plan to gut the Flores agreement, which, for more than twenty years, has insured protections for children held in government custody.

Not the Messiah: Trump insists 'chosen one' China trade war remark was a joke   -8%

  • President made initial claim about policies towards Beijing
  • Many observers questioned president’s mental state

Donald Trump has twice insisted he was just joking when he claimed to be “the chosen one” to take on China over trade.

Related: 'I hereby order': Trump mocked for highly formal, meaningless decree

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Doctors say new rule will mean sicker immigrants   -40%

Poor health and rising costs will come from sweeping Trump administration changes.

Trump retaliates against China with fresh tariff hike, capping chaotic day for markets   -25%

U.S. President Donald Trump retaliated against China on Friday with a series of tweets announcing a hike in tariffs on all Chinese goods. This comes after the stock markets sold off in reaction to Trump angrily ordering U.S. companies to stop doing business with China and accusing his own central banker of being an "enemy" to his economic plan.

Explainer: What tools could Trump use to get U.S. firms to quit China?  

Hours after China announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods on Friday, President Donald Trump ordered U.S. companies to "start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies HOME and making your products in the USA.".

Trump's "Chosen" people: Evangelicals   50%

When President Trump described himself as 'The Chosen One' and tweeted out a talkshow host calling him 'KIng of Israel,' who is he appealing to? Evangelicals.

Trump Announces Higher Tariffs On Goods From China After Dow Plunges 623 Points   8%

President Trump's move came after Beijing announced tariffs on $75 billion worth of autos and other U.S. goods. In a tweet, he also "ordered" U.S. companies to stop doing business with China.

China triggers $75 billion tariff hike despite Trump delay   -6%

Although Washington postponed a new round of tariffs on Chinese exports, Beijing has targeted US cars, oil and food. President Donald Trump went on a Twitter tirade after the Chinese announcement.

As Texas Suburbs Diversify, Democrats See An Opportunity For 2020  

As Republican retirements stack up, Democrats are bullish about gains in Texas, with rapid demographic shifts among Hispanics and Asians. Plus, a backlash against President Trump.

Pelosi says public doesn't support impeachment   20%

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi still isn't ready to launch impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump

Foreign aid cuts could imperil budget deal   5%

How Trump undercuts the Afghanistan peace process — The Air Force general and the race to the moon

Trumps Riskiest Bet   15%

It’s the nightmare scenario that President Donald Trump’s camp dreads most: an economic downturn that steadily intensifies as the 2020 election nears. What would it mean for Trump if, by the fall of 2020, the jobless rate had doubled, economic growth was hovering at an anemic 1 percent, and, with no end in sight for the trade war with China, the stock market was plunging? A president whose argument for reelection rests on a healthy economy would suddenly find that his rationale has collapsed, right along with voters’ retirement funds.

“Does every presidential campaign worry about a downturn in the second and third quarter of an election year? You bet your ass they do,” said one Trump confidant, who, like some others contacted for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss the subject candidly.

However much people may dislike Trump as a person, they’ve been largely satisfied with his management of the economy. A recession risks knocking out one of the main pillars sustaining him politically. Inside the White House, aides are split over whether one is coming and, if so, what exactly to do about it. What’s clear is that a recession would test the loyalty of voters who’ve forgiven Trump for any number of indiscretions and outrages that would have toppled most other politicians. But even if Trump’s supporters turn out to the polls next year, that’s not enough to ensure his victory.

“Human beings who can get to the polls will vote,” Frank Luntz, a longtime pollster, told me. Interest in the election will be so fevered, Luntz quipped, that “a lot of dead people are going to come back to life to vote.”

In the end, the race may hinge on the preferences of some 5 to 10 percent of the electorate who are unattached to either party and whose perceptions of the economy could decide Trump’s fate.

“I don’t think people win elections with their base; I think they win elections by getting people in the middle,” Robert Grand, who was part of the fundraising team for Trump’s 2016 campaign, told me.

The president’s campaign advisers tell me that Trump would like to pose the question made famous by Ronald Reagan: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” If the answer isn’t a ringing yes, Trump could be facing a one-term presidency. Worse for him, even if the answer is a ringing yes, he may have so alienated voters for other reasons that the economic argument might not be enough to push him over the top in November 2020.

Tucked into a new Wall Street Journal–NBC News survey was, for Trumpworld, a worrying omen. The poll found that by a whopping margin of 73 percent to 5 percent, the subset of voters who don’t approve of Trump but still like how he’s handled the economy favor a Democratic candidate over the president. Trump can’t write off these voters—or any voters, for that matter. Demographic trends simply don’t work in his favor. Luntz told me that if Trump suffers no defections in 2020 and locks in every person who voted for him in 2016, he could still lose the electoral college and, hence, the election. That’s because younger voters who are casting ballots for the first time prefer Democrats over Republicans by a decisive margin, and some of Trump’s older voters will have died by the time November 3, 2020, rolls around, Luntz said. “Trump must win people who didn’t vote for him,” he told me. “And the way he’s going to do that, the only way he’s going to do that, is through the economy.”

[Read: Why no one wants to talk about the booming economy]

As always, but especially right now, the economy is a wild card. Signs point to a coming slowdown, though it’s difficult to pinpoint either its severity or its timing. Last week, the returns on short-term U.S. bonds surpassed those of long-term bonds, a development that typically signals a looming recession. Financial markets have been whipsawed by Trump’s on-again, off-again trade war with China.

Stephen Moore, a former campaign adviser whom Trump had wanted to nominate for a seat on the Federal Reserve Board this spring, but who pulled out when it became clear he couldn’t win Senate confirmation, told me that Trump’s trade dispute with China is hurting the economy, if only in the short term. “Of course it is,” Moore said. “I talk to businessmen and women, and they say that the trade war has hurt their orders. It has hurt their capital spending.” I asked Moore about Trump’s contention that the tariffs he has imposed on China are helping the U.S. at China’s expense. “That’s kind of spin from the president—trying to make a case for what he’s doing,” Moore told me. “There are some positive aspects from tariffs … but those benefits are clearly upset by the wrench of uncertainty that has been thrown into the economy by the tariffs.”

Indeed, a Congressional Budget Office report released yesterday concluded that Trump’s tariffs will “lower economic output” by making consumer and other goods more expensive. Further, the “uncertainty” produced by Trump’s trade practices will reduce business investment, though that impact will taper off after 2020 once business makes adjustments to deal with the costs triggered by the tariffs, the report showed. Still, if the tariffs are still driving up costs by 2020, that’s troublesome for Trump’s reelection effort.

No consensus has emerged inside the White House about the economy’s direction. As ever, aides are divided and quarreling about whether a downturn is coming and what the antidote might be. Acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney told donors at a private fundraiser in Wyoming this week that if the United States endured a recession, it would be “moderate and short,” according to Politico.

Trump told reporters Tuesday that he was exploring a payroll-tax cut and other measures that might boost the economy. Yesterday he backtracked: No tax cuts were needed, he told reporters. Other Trump advisers had privately dismissed the notion of tax cuts, saying they would never get through Congress. Besides, the prognosis may not be so grim, these people say. John McLaughlin, one of the president’s pollsters, told me that people are not as fearful of losing their jobs as they were in the years before Trump took office. “Main Street,” he said, “is feeling good about the economy. The majority of Americans think it’s still getting better. The strength of the president’s job approval is that the economy is growing.”

Heading toward the election, Trump wouldn’t mind a little more growth. He’s found a villain to serve up to voters anxious about their financial condition: the guy he appointed to chair the Federal Reserve Board, Jerome Powell. In recent days, Trump has stepped up his demonization of Powell, accusing him of sabotaging the economy by not cutting interest rates more aggressively. Yesterday he tweeted, “The only problem we have is Jay Powell and the Fed. He’s like a golfer who can’t putt, has no touch … So far, he has called it wrong and only let us down.”

[Derek Thompson: Don’t root for a recession]

Set aside the fairness of that claim, or the propriety of giving someone a job and then undercutting him in the public eye when, for practical purposes, Powell can’t defend himself. Forget for a moment whether it’s appropriate for a president to browbeat an independent central bank. Or, for that matter, whether a president should personalize a dispute over monetary policy and expose Powell to public wrath. Trump is also going down a path that could set a dangerous precedent: pressuring the Fed to take steps that would be manifestly helpful to the sitting president in an election season.

Ironically, before he took office, Trump criticized the Fed for just this sort of politicized decision making. In September 2016, two months before the election, Trump accused then–Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen of deliberately keeping interest rates low to inflate the stock market and burnish President Barack Obama’s legacy. It was a baseless claim, but it revealed something about Trump’s thinking: The Fed is another useful tool of incumbency. With the presidency up for grabs, Trump is seeing if he can’t press the Fed into service, juicing the economy in ways that might potentially win the loyalty of that sliver of voters who don’t like his style but are happy that 401(k)s are rising on his watch.

“When they go to the ballot box in November of 2020, no one will say, ‘Hey, do you remember when on August 14 the Dow dropped 800 points? I’m not voting for Trump,’” the Trump confidant told me. “They’ll say, ‘In the totality of four years, am I better off than I was four years ago?’ And they’ll vote for the guy.”

Florida man charged for stash of Trump-shaped ecstasy pills  

A Florida man who was found to have ecstasy pills shaped like U.S. President Donald Trump's head has been charged with unlawful possession of controlled substances, according Pinellas County court documents.

Donald Trump says he is 'thechosenone' to take on China video  

The US president said his life would be easier if he had not mounted a trade war with China but went on to say ‘I am the chosen one’ to take on Beijing. Donald Trump said the US would probably make a deal with China

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Donald Trump lands in France for testing G7 summit   -3%

United States President Donald Trump on Saturday arrived in France for a G7 summit that will likely expose deep rifts over a clutch of issues such as global trade, climate change and taxing big tech.He landed in Biarritz, southwestern France, a day after lashing back at a new round of Beijing tariffs by imposing an additional 5 per cent duty on some US$550 billion in targeted Chinese goods in the latest tit-for-tat trade war escalation by the world’s two largest economies.Trump also repeated…

Linda Sarsour, Jewish Voice for Peace take aim at CNN's Jake Tapper over 'dangerous Islamophobia'  

Anchorman bashed for comparing Trump's influence on white supremacist attacks to that of Palestinian leaders on violence against Israelis

Vietnam and America: foes on paper, friends out of necessity   -35%

“Almost the single worst abuser of everybody.”This was how US President Donald Trump described Vietnam’s approach to trade in an interview in June.His damning verdict was followed a few days later by an announcement from the US Department of Commerce that it would be imposing duties of up to 456 per cent on Vietnamese steel imports.Hanoi has been seen as the biggest winner from Trump’s trade war with China, but is now also on the receiving end of a hardening approach from Washington. The change…

Europe must oppose Trump  

With U.S. President Donald Trump due to visit Europe again for the G-7 summit later this month, European leaders have run out of options for dealing with the U.S. president.

N. Korea launches 2 more projectiles Trump says Kim likes testing missiles  

North Korea has reportedly fired two short-range missiles off its eastern coast, marking the seventh missile test since Donald Trump met with Kim Jong-un in June. The US president downplayed the launches as inconsequential.
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